Nashville STR Market Report 2026: ADR, Occupancy & Picks

Nashville’s STR market in 2026 is softer on average and still strong on event weekends. Per AirDNA (May 2026), the average listing runs about 54% occupancy and earns about $40.5K a year, with revenue down 7.1% and ADR down 5.4% year over year. The gap between an average listing and a well-run one is where the money is, and the spring and summer calendar is where most of it gets made.

• Quick take:
• Price for compression: lock June event floors now and use strict 2 to 3 night minimums on peak weekends.
• Tighten compliance: renew STRP early and audit your listing for exact permit wording, Metro is checking.
• Play the right submarkets: East Nashville, Germantown, and The Nations are outperforming for 2 to 4BRs; Gulch/12 South win on premium ADR.
• Work your lead times: open aggressive last-minute discounts inside 7 days; hold rates for May/June until 21 to 30 days out.
• Automate ops: smart messaging, noise monitoring, and QC checklists protect reviews and NOI.

Nashville short-term rental market: 2026 outlook

Visitor demand builds through spring and early summer as bachelorette season returns and touring acts fill Bridgestone, Ascend, and Geodis. Visit Music City’s recent reports continue to show strong leisure demand, while conventions pad midweeks downtown. AirDNA’s Nashville data (May 2026) shows a softer market overall: about 54% average occupancy, about $40.5K average annual revenue per listing, revenue down 7.1%, and ADR down 5.4% year over year. Pricing power is concentrated on high-demand weekends, not spread across the calendar.

Demand drivers by month (March-July)

• March-April: Spring breaks, Predators playoff push potential, steady concerts, and early bachelorette trips. Fridays and Saturdays run hot; Sundays and Tuesdays need help.
• May: Graduation weekends (Vanderbilt, Belmont, Lipscomb) and back-to-back concert slates. Many 3 to 4BRs in East Nashville and The Nations can sell out 3 to 4 weekends if priced correctly.
• June: CMA Fest in early June drives the highest ADR of the year across Downtown, Gulch, SoBro, and Germantown. Expect citywide compression for 3 to 5 nights.
• July: July 4th downtown fireworks routinely create a premium weekend; mid-July softens until football and fall events return.

ADR ranges to target

Ranges below reflect well-run listings with strong photos, fast responses, and 4.8+ ratings. Your exact numbers depend on design, location, and bedroom count.

• 1 to 2BR urban condos/duplexes (Germantown, The Gulch, SoBro): Spring weekend ADR $225 to $375; June peak $350 to $500; shoulder midweeks $140 to $220.
• 3 to 4BR houses/townhomes (East Nashville, The Nations, Sylvan Park): Spring weekend ADR $350 to $700; CMA Fest $650 to $1,200 depending on walkability and beds; midweeks $200 to $350.
• Premium 4BR near Downtown/Gulch/12 South: Spring weekend ADR $600 to $1,200+; CMA Fest and select concert weekends $1,200 to $2,000 if beds and amenities fit groups.

Benchmark your performance against your real comp set, not the whole city. AirDNA and direct scrape tools can isolate true comps by bedroom count, neighborhood, and amenity stack. If you’re more than 10 to 15% off these ranges with strong reviews, your pricing calendar or minimum-stay rules may be leaving money on the table. For occupancy, use the AirDNA market average (about 54%, May 2026) as the reference point and let your real comps tell you how far above or below it to plan.

Supply growth in this market is shaped by which properties can legally operate, which is worth understanding before reading too much into a raw listing count. See our Nashville STR permit guide.

Neighborhood-by-neighborhood: where Nashville STRs still pencil in 2026

Nashville is a block-by-block market. Here’s where we’re seeing consistent performance and why.

East Nashville (Lockeland Springs, Five Points, Cleveland Park)

Group-friendly 3 to 4BR houses with parking and a quick rideshare to Broadway win here. ADRs jump on concert weekends; think $400 to $800 for quality 4BRs, with strong midweeks when designed for remote work. Murals, patios, and well-lit entries boost conversion.

Germantown

Walkable restaurants, Sounds baseball, and proximity to Downtown. 1 to 2BRs and luxe townhomes do well. Premium listings can push $300 to $450 weekends in spring, higher around CMA Fest if you’re within a 15 to 20 minute walk to Broadway.

The Nations

Tall-and-skinny 3 to 4BRs excel with bachelorette groups seeking value versus Gulch rates. Garage parking and rooftops convert. Weekends routinely clear $450 to $900 in spring with quality bedding and flexible sleeping layouts.

The Gulch / SoBro

Top-tier ADRs, limited legal inventory, and heavy HOA restrictions. If you’re legal here, optimize photos and amenity set, walkability should headline. CMA Fest and July 4th premiums are among the city’s best.

12 South, Hillsboro Village, and Sylvan Park

High-end homes close to shopping and campus draws. Great for families, wedding parties, and alumni weekends. Expect fewer stays but bigger baskets; long weekends at $700 to $1,200+ for 4BRs with thoughtful design.

Wedgewood-Houston (WeHo)

Art, coffee, and Geodis Park. Soccer nights spike last-minute demand; keep 2-night stays flexible around match days. Industrial-modern design plays well in listings here.

Downtown, River North, and the East Bank

Construction on the new enclosed stadium, opening in 2027, is reshaping demand patterns and long-term upside on the East Bank. Legally operating units in DTC and nearby mixed-use zones can capture top RevPAR on concert nights. Be precise with parking and access instructions, guests here pay for convenience.

Donelson, Madison, and Antioch

Value plays with car-dependent guests. Airport proximity helps Donelson midweeks; larger homes in Madison draw extended families. Antioch wins on budget for big groups, price to fill and monetize with add-ons (early check-in, pet fees, stocked fridges).

Underwriting a Nashville deal? Start with our free Nashville STR Revenue Calculator for a quick estimate, then schedule a call and we’ll walk through base, upside, and downside cases for your address.

Want these numbers for your home?

Send us the address or your last 12 months of statements. We will show you where it sits against the market and what we would change.

Pricing strategy for Nashville Airbnbs in 2026: tactics that actually move RevPAR

Event-based floors and min-stays

• Set rate floors for CMA Fest, July 4th, and major stadium shows now. Example: if your typical Saturday is $500, consider a $900 to $1,100 floor for a 4BR in The Nations during CMA week.
• Use 2 to 3 night minimums on compression weekends and 1-night gaps to backfill orphan nights inside 10 days.

Weekpart and lead-time curves

• Fridays/Saturdays carry the margin. Price Sun-Thu 20 to 35% lower unless a convention or show lifts midweek downtown.
• Hold strong rates 30 to 45 days out for May/June weekends. Inside 14 days, let the algorithm open discounts in 5 to 10% steps to chase pace, don’t nuke prices 45 days early.

Length-of-stay and orphan night management

• Use progressive discounts (5% at 3 nights, 10% at 5 nights) to reduce turnover costs without trashing ADR.
• Patch single-night gaps with premium pricing inside 72 hours; last-minute business and concertgoers will pay.

Calendar hygiene that matters

• Black out your cleaning team’s true availability and avoid same-day turnovers if your layout is large and staged heavily.
• Tag your calendar with venue schedules: Bridgestone, Geodis, Ascend, and the stadium. When a surprise show drops, lift your rate floor before everyone else.

Operations that protect 5-star reviews at scale

Turnover systems

• Use room-by-room checklists and photo verification; require cleaners to upload 8 to 12 proof shots per turnover.
• Standardize consumables: paper goods, coffee, toiletries, and backup linens. Locked cabinets keep stock organized and reduce emergency runs.
• Do a quarterly deep clean and maintenance day, HVAC filters, battery swaps, grout refresh. It pays back in fewer issues and higher conversion.

Guest communication and house rules

• Automate a tight message cadence: booking confirmation (permit + rules), pre-arrival with parking and door codes, mid-stay check-in, and checkout steps.
• Install calibrated noise monitoring and exterior-only cameras at entries per platform rules. Enforce quiet hours and guest count gently but firmly.
• Offer paid early check-in/late checkout through automation. It covers cleaner overtime and drives guest satisfaction.

Listing optimization for Nashville travelers

• Lead with a hero shot that sells either skyline proximity or a designer living area with enough seating for your max guest count.
• Use neighborhood-specific copy: Five Points restaurants, Germantown coffee, or a 6-minute Uber to Broadway, measured and accurate.
• Stage for groups: mirrors, vanities, luggage racks, blackout curtains, and well-labeled sleeper sofas. Design for the trips you want to capture.

Investment math: underwriting a Nashville STR in 2026

Underwrite on today’s rules, not yesterday’s anecdotes. Pair conservative occupancy with realistic ADR from true comps in your zoning.

• Setup budget: $7k to $10k per bedroom to furnish at guest-ready quality; $15k to $25k for larger homes with outdoor spaces or rooftops.
• Fixed costs: Insurance, property taxes, utilities, internet, landscaping, pest control. Cleaning is a pass-through to guests but expect restock and maintenance to run 2 to 4% of revenue.
• Management: Full-service fees in Nashville typically range 15 to 25% of gross booking revenue depending on scope, tech, and scale.
• Revenue targets: Start from the market. AirDNA (May 2026) puts the average Nashville listing at about $40.5K in annual revenue, down 7.1% year over year. A well-located, well-run 3BR or 4BR can beat that, but underwrite from the actual comps for your address, not from anyone’s best case.

Pressure test the pro forma with three scenarios: Base Case (about 54% occupancy, the AirDNA market average, at mid-range ADR from your comps), Upside (a few points above market with premium event capture), and Downside (below-market occupancy with ADR down another 5% or so, in line with the past year’s 5.4% drop). If it still cash flows after debt service and reserves, you’re on solid footing.

How Misfit Homes uses AI-driven management

Misfit Homes leans on automation where it helps and humans where it matters. The goal is to protect RevPAR and keep stays smooth.

• Dynamic pricing informed by Nashville-specific demand signals: ticket on-sales, venue calendars, and search pace, feeding rate floors, min-stays, and discount curves.
• Operations automation that assigns, routes, and verifies turnovers with photo QC and inventory tracking to kill missed items.
• Guest messaging that stays personal but instant, AI drafts, human-reviewed for edge cases.
• Risk controls with noise/occupancy anomaly detection and rapid response playbooks to protect your permit and neighbors.

FAQs: the Nashville STR market in 2026

Is Nashville a good market for short-term rentals in 2026?

Yes, for well-located, well-operated properties, but the average listing is softer than it was. AirDNA (May 2026) shows about 54% average occupancy and about $40.5K average annual revenue per listing, with revenue down 7.1% and ADR down 5.4% year over year. Demand holds up best near Downtown, Gulch, Germantown, East Nashville, and The Nations. Success depends on legal zoning, professional ops, and pricing discipline during event windows.

Is the Nashville STR market oversupplied in 2026?

Supply has grown faster than demand, and it shows in AirDNA’s numbers: about 54% average occupancy, with revenue down 7.1% and ADR down 5.4% year over year (May 2026). That pressure is not spread evenly: undifferentiated listings feel it first, and well-run ones hold up better.

How much can an Airbnb make in Nashville right now?

It varies by bedroom count and neighborhood. As a rough guide, quality 2BRs near Downtown/Germantown often average $200 to $300+ on spring weekends, while 4BRs in East Nashville or The Nations can hit $450 to $900+ with peaks much higher during CMA Fest. For context, AirDNA (May 2026) puts average annual revenue per Nashville listing at about $40.5K; larger, well-run homes can do better, so underwrite from your own comps.

Which Nashville neighborhoods are best for STR investment?

For groups: East Nashville, The Nations, and Sylvan Park offer strong value and space. For premium ADR: The Gulch, SoBro, 12 South, and Germantown lead if you’re legal. Downtown and River North/East Bank provide top compression on event nights when permits and HOAs allow.

How should I price for CMA Fest and major concerts?

Set event-specific floors months in advance, extend 2 to 3 night minimums, and hold firm until 21 to 30 days out. Use last-minute discounts only if pace lags, and avoid undercutting yourself too early. Group-friendly homes within a short ride to Broadway can often command 1.5 to 3x normal weekend ADR during CMA.

What occupancy rate should I expect in Nashville?

AirDNA (May 2026) puts the Nashville average at about 54% annual occupancy. Location, bedroom count, and operations move a property above or below that. Peak weekends fill up citywide; the art is monetizing shoulders and midweeks without discounting too far. Focus on RevPAR, not occupancy alone.

Do platforms collect all my Nashville STR taxes?

Not always. Marketplaces may remit some state and local taxes, but you’re responsible for ensuring full compliance. Review the Tennessee DOR guidance and confirm what your platform handles versus what you must file directly.

Ready to pressure-test your numbers and see a clear plan for 2026? Schedule a call and we’ll map your exact pricing, compliance, and operations strategy for your address.

Related: See more Nashville STR insights | Explore how we run operations.

Go deeper: See which Nashville Airbnb design trends are converting on these ADR levels, and how the Nashville STR investment playbook turns these market signals into a buy-box.

To translate market averages into what an individual address actually pays out, see Nashville Airbnb earnings data.